Scarecrows are not worth it

Cptldsilver

Planter
I was looking at the Wiki for crows and realized that scarecrows aren't worth it at a certain point. According to the Wiki "For every 16 crops (rounded down), a crow may try to eat a crop. This is maxed at 4 crows. Each crow has a 30% chance of attempting to eat." So that means that if you have 64 or more crops then you should lose, on average 1.2 crops a night. This number does not change though if you have 64 or 3000+ crops. Its kind of an edge case, but if your the kind of player that fills their entire field with crops then I think its actually better to not use scarecrows.
 

Cptldsilver

Planter
I must have bad luck, then- every save that I've started, the DAY I get level 1 farming to create a scarecrow, I have walked out of my house to see one of my cauliflower has been replaced by a hungry crow- which laughs at me as it flies away.

I always make scarecrows, lol.
I think that's the point though. Scarecrows are very useful for the first 64 crops, after that their usefulness becomes less and less.
 

Thrawn

Sodbuster
I think that's the point though. Scarecrows are very useful for the first 64 crops, after that their usefulness becomes less and less.
True, but I'm easily distracted, so I haven't gotten to the point where I have more than 64 crops (I keep making new farmers lol) so they're still necessary for me. (Though I use mods to make them look pretty, so they add to the aesthetic of my farm)
 

Cptldsilver

Planter
Would you mind going through your math please? The way i read the page i interpreted that the larger the number of crops you have the larger the percentage of loss was.
If the wiki is correct it says "For every 16 crops (rounded down), a crow may try to eat a crop. This is maxed at 4 crows.

Each crow has a 30% chance of attempting to eat. A crow attempting to eat a crop will try 10 times to find an eligible crop. A crow chooses a random tilled tile on the farm. (Note: This is done after overnight un-tilling[2]) If this tile contains a crop that has grown beyond seeds, the crow will stop looking. If the crop is in range of a scarecrow, the crow will be scared off. Otherwise the crow will eat the crop. Note that crows will eat dead crops leftover from previous seasons.

Each crow will only eat one crop, but may continue to hop around and peck at the ground afterwards. This animation is purely cosmetic."

So that means that there would be one crow for every 16 eligible crops, maxed at 4 crows 4*16=64. After you have 64 crops you would never get more crows. Each crow only has a 30% chance of eating a crop, even if spawned so that means you should lose, on average, 1.2 crops a night for every night you have at least 64 eligible crops.
As for the second paragraph, here's how I read the order of events.
  1. Game checks the number of crops you have and spawns a crow for every 16 crops, maxed at 4 crows.
  2. Game runs a 30% chance of crow #1 eating a crop.
  3. If the crow successfully passes the "eating" check it starts checking random tilled locations, up to 10 spots. If any of these spots is an eligible crop (crop that is past the seed stage) the crow passes this check and moves on to the final check.
  4. The game checks if the eligible crop that the crow found is protected by a scarecrow.
  5. If the crop is not protected then the crow eats that crop.
  6. Repeat steps 2-5 until all crows spawned have been checked.
Some other interesting things are that you could try to trick the game by having multiple tilled tiles that do not contain crops. In order for this to work the first 10 tilled tiles the crow picks would have to be these "trick" tiles.
 

Cptldsilver

Planter
The best time to take advantage of this would be when you are attempting to use every single tile to farm with. In my most recent min max run I ended up with 28 scarecrows. If I had instead used those spots to farm with I would have had 3 harvests of starfruit or pumpkin, depending on the season. 3*28=84 crops I could have had if I did no scarecrows every season, assuming 3 harvests a season. Compare that to the 1.2 (number of crops you should lose on average a night)*27 (number of days there should be eligible crops)=32.4 rounded up to 33 crops lost to crows a season. The only loss on those 33 crops is the cost of the seeds themselves, which is actually not bad when you compare the cost of the scarecrows.

Scarecrows are really expensive if you are short on wood, coal, or fiber which you will be if your going the min max route. If you are "buying" each scarecrow you are going to pay,
  • 500 gold for wood (50 wood)
  • 150 gold for coal (1 coal)
  • 2000 gold for fiber (20 fiber, in order to buy this you have to buy 100 stone from robin then trade that at the desert trader for fiber) Though I rarely buy stone since its so damn expensive.
  • Grand total of 2650 gold for one scarecrow with fiber or 650 gold if you don't buy the fiber.
Basically, you can have 51 more crops a season, at the cost of 33 seeds 84-33=51. But you don't have to pay for the scarecrows which mostly balances out the cost of the seeds. This equation obviously changes if you are using deluxe scarecrows or if you are using a multiple harvest crop. I would not recommend this if you are planting ancient fruits for example since you would lose 33 a season for 3 seasons 3*33=99 crops lost compared to the only 28 you lose if you are using scarecrows. This strategy is basically a niche strategy for giant fields of single harvest crops.
 
The best time to take advantage of this would be when you are attempting to use every single tile to farm with. In my most recent min max run I ended up with 28 scarecrows. If I had instead used those spots to farm with I would have had 3 harvests of starfruit or pumpkin, depending on the season. 3*28=84 crops I could have had if I did no scarecrows every season, assuming 3 harvests a season. Compare that to the 1.2 (number of crops you should lose on average a night)*27 (number of days there should be eligible crops)=32.4 rounded up to 33 crops lost to crows a season. The only loss on those 33 crops is the cost of the seeds themselves, which is actually not bad when you compare the cost of the scarecrows.

Scarecrows are really expensive if you are short on wood, coal, or fiber which you will be if your going the min max route. If you are "buying" each scarecrow you are going to pay,
  • 500 gold for wood (50 wood)
  • 150 gold for coal (1 coal)
  • 2000 gold for fiber (20 fiber, in order to buy this you have to buy 100 stone from robin then trade that at the desert trader for fiber) Though I rarely buy stone since its so damn expensive.
  • Grand total of 2650 gold for one scarecrow with fiber or 650 gold if you don't buy the fiber.
Basically, you can have 51 more crops a season, at the cost of 33 seeds 84-33=51. But you don't have to pay for the scarecrows which mostly balances out the cost of the seeds. This equation obviously changes if you are using deluxe scarecrows or if you are using a multiple harvest crop. I would not recommend this if you are planting ancient fruits for example since you would lose 33 a season for 3 seasons 3*33=99 crops lost compared to the only 28 you lose if you are using scarecrows. This strategy is basically a niche strategy for giant fields of single harvest crops.
Thanks for the reply mate. And I'm not trying to be confrontational, I just can't find my college statistics book at the moment to verify the expected losses.
I've read the wiki. I see all that text. What I don't see is you math, that shows you will lose on average 1.2 crops per night. In my review I do see that the math I had used before was edge calcs on one scarecrow thus the number of fields matters. If you are truly going with zero scarecrows then yes, the number of fields after 172 matter not. After I've confirmed the average expected loss "per day" I think I have some valid points to discuss on this topic.
Guess I'll get there when I can get there. cheers
 

Cptldsilver

Planter
Thanks for the reply mate. And I'm not trying to be confrontational, I just can't find my college statistics book at the moment to verify the expected losses.
I've read the wiki. I see all that text. What I don't see is you math, that shows you will lose on average 1.2 crops per night. In my review I do see that the math I had used before was edge calcs on one scarecrow thus the number of fields matters. If you are truly going with zero scarecrows then yes, the number of fields after 172 matter not. After I've confirmed the average expected loss "per day" I think I have some valid points to discuss on this topic.
Guess I'll get there when I can get there. cheers
The game spawns 4 crows and each crow has a .3 chance to eat your crops. I guess it would be accurate to say you could lose 4 crops every night or 0 crops every night. But since each crow only has a .3 chance you should on average lose about 1.2 crops per night over the course of a season. Also, where are you getting the 172 number? The number of crows should be maxed at 64 crops.
 
The game spawns 4 crows and each crow has a .3 chance to eat your crops. I guess it would be accurate to say you could lose 4 crops every night or 0 crops every night. But since each crow only has a .3 chance you should on average lose about 1.2 crops per night over the course of a season. Also, where are you getting the 172 number? The number of crows should be maxed at 64 crops.
Ok, here we go found the correct formula and where i had messed up my numbers before apologies for the wall of text to come. I'll see what I can do to clean it up as I go.
1stly. 172 is the 64 crops plus 27 days of 4 crop loss (108) so that the number of fields did not matter. If you used 64 then the 1st lost field (which is by our calculations after the first night) it changes the formula to only 3 crows. I went a bit extreme at a season of 4 losses per day to say with 100% certainty the calculations would not change (per season since the assumption is that they would be replanted each season).
2nd. The formula for calculating expected crop loss due to 4 crows is as follows.
chance of bird eating = 30% [0.3] chance of bird not eating 70% [0.7]
For a single night the % chance of 4 losses is (0.3^4 ) x 1 combination= 0.81%
For a single night the % chance of 3 losses is ((0.3^3)*0.7) x 4 combinations = 1.89% x 4 = 7.56%
For a single night the % chance of 2 losses is ((0.3^2)*(0.7^2))x 6 combinations = 4.41% x 6 = 26.46%
For a single night the % chance of 1 loss is (0.3*(0.7^3)) x 4 combinations = 10.29% x 4 = 41.16%
For a single night the % chance of 0 losses is (0.7^4) x 1 combination = 24.01%.
sum 100%
The average of that is as stated in OP as 1.2 per night assuming 4 crows always and no scarecrows at all.

So here we are on the same page to start. 1.2 crops lost per night with 27 nights each season of loss is 33 crops lost a season to crows with zero scarecrows. And using fertilizer cauliflower will harvest 3 times each spring, starfruit will harvest 3 times each summer, and pumpkins will harvest 3 times in the fall.

Now, as OP stated 28 scarecrows is a lot and will cause you to sacrifice 84 harvests each season. I'll have to stop short here on the agreement part and we'll have to wait for a later post to start the discussion points I have based upon the further calculations I did. <I failed to e-mail myself the correct file home so I can't provide the necessary math to support and extend my points at this time luckily the machine is next door and shouldn't take to long to retrieve.)
 

Cptldsilver

Planter
Ok, here we go found the correct formula and where i had messed up my numbers before apologies for the wall of text to come. I'll see what I can do to clean it up as I go.
1stly. 172 is the 64 crops plus 27 days of 4 crop loss (108) so that the number of fields did not matter. If you used 64 then the 1st lost field (which is by our calculations after the first night) it changes the formula to only 3 crows. I went a bit extreme at a season of 4 losses per day to say with 100% certainty the calculations would not change (per season since the assumption is that they would be replanted each season).
2nd. The formula for calculating expected crop loss due to 4 crows is as follows.
chance of bird eating = 30% [0.3] chance of bird not eating 70% [0.7]
For a single night the % chance of 4 losses is (0.3^4 ) x 1 combination= 0.81%
For a single night the % chance of 3 losses is ((0.3^3)*0.7) x 4 combinations = 1.89% x 4 = 7.56%
For a single night the % chance of 2 losses is ((0.3^2)*(0.7^2))x 6 combinations = 4.41% x 6 = 26.46%
For a single night the % chance of 1 loss is (0.3*(0.7^3)) x 4 combinations = 10.29% x 4 = 41.16%
For a single night the % chance of 0 losses is (0.7^4) x 1 combination = 24.01%.
sum 100%
The average of that is as stated in OP as 1.2 per night assuming 4 crows always and no scarecrows at all.

So here we are on the same page to start. 1.2 crops lost per night with 27 nights each season of loss is 33 crops lost a season to crows with zero scarecrows. And using fertilizer cauliflower will harvest 3 times each spring, starfruit will harvest 3 times each summer, and pumpkins will harvest 3 times in the fall.

Now, as OP stated 28 scarecrows is a lot and will cause you to sacrifice 84 harvests each season. I'll have to stop short here on the agreement part and we'll have to wait for a later post to start the discussion points I have based upon the further calculations I did. <I failed to e-mail myself the correct file home so I can't provide the necessary math to support and extend my points at this time luckily the machine is next door and shouldn't take to long to retrieve.)
Very nice on the expected losses on a single night. I would be interested in knowing the expected losses over the entire season as well. Great post!
 
Very nice on the expected losses on a single night. I would be interested in knowing the expected losses over the entire season as well. Great post!
As postulated, the expected losses per season could be considered as 27x1.2 and thus 33. Erroring on the side of comservativsm but not doomsday prophesy, average losses for a year = 99 crops to crows. (I apologize in advance for the wall of text to follow. I like to be thurough in case folks want to check my math.)

Now, the math used in posts above assumed 0 scarecrow coverage. 30% success and 70% failure as give in the wiki. All fields are planted the whole time, which means eaten plants get replanted with another crop - even if just to preserve the tilling for the next season.

To alter the formula to account for some scarecrow coverage and some not the formula will change as such.

chance of bird eating = E= 30% x ( 1- (Safe Crops / Total Crops )) -assuming no empty tilled fields because we are being efficient. 10 attemtps doesn't matter as the first will either eat or flee.
chance of bird not eating is N = 100% - chance of bird eating.
To simplify the field count (and reduce the magnitude of digits) I am going to measure the fields in units of full scarecrows. S is now Safe Crops = Scarecrows and T = Total Crops and also Total Scarecrows required. Giving us E= 30% x (1 - S/T) and T = 1-E

Most folks on the other forums who post figure on 20 quality sprinklers inside one scarecrow radius. That is 160 fields per scarecrow.
Scarecrows cover 248 fields, but since we are talking many, many scarecrows in each scenario, I'd hesitate to use this number due to watering constraints.
I see quality sprinklers cover 88.88% of the ground they occupy so 220 fields as a scarecrow is possible.
Iridium sprinklers cover 96% of the ground they occupy so 238 is an option.
Regular sprinklers are 80% coverage or 198.
My current preferred layout is 181 fields planted in each scarecrow. 20 quality with 8 spaces under coverage and used, 3 quaility with 7 spaces covered and used.
Use whatever number you like, just for these calculations we must assume all scarecrows must cover equal amounts of fields - or you have to use actual field counts and the numbers are larger.

So where to go with this?
The formula for calculating expected crop loss due to 4 crows is as follows.
chance of bird eating = [E] chance of bird not eating [N]
For a single night the % chance of 4 losses is (E^4 ) x 1 combination= A%
For a single night the % chance of 3 losses is ((E^3)*N) x 4 combinations = b% x 4 = B%
For a single night the % chance of 2 losses is ((E^2)*(N^2))x 6 combinations = c% x 6 = C%
For a single night the % chance of 1 loss is (E*(N^3)) x 4 combinations = d% x 4 = D%
For a single night the % chance of 0 losses is (N^4) x 1 combination = Z%.
where A+B+C+D+Z sums to 100% .
the average of those are the Expected Losses per day. Xd. and 27days*Xd = Xs equals seasonal losses.
Each scarecrow comes with the "cost" of 3 harvests lost per scarecrow as already given up or conceeded. Gs.
The goal is to minimize Gs+Xs.
I have a spreadsheet if anyone wants to see the tons of scenerios I checked or to check your own, but let me just hit the highlights here.

Xs without scarecrows is 33, Gs without scarecrows is 0. So to make scarecrows valuable is for Total losses to be less than 33 or the scarecrow is not worth it. With me so far?

The next step to evaulate if Gs+Xs can ever be less than 33 we'll need to pick some field counts and ratios of coverage.

Let's start small with 181 crops and call than 1 scarecrow's worth of fields. T=1
If all are contained inside the radius S = 1 and T = 1.
E = 30% x ( 1 - 1/1) = 0% N = 1-N = 100%
A% = 100%
B% = C% = D% = Z% = 0%.
Thus Xd = 0.
Xs = 0.
Gs = 3xS = 3x1 = 3.
Xs+Gs = 0 + 3 = 3 for 181 fields fully covered by a scarecrow. That is 30 crops better than 33 our scarecrow-less benchmark. I suggest if you can fit all crops under 1 scarecrow you are better off having the scarecrow than not. By 30 harvests per season.

Let's move up to 362 crops and call than 2 scarecrow's worth of fields. T=2
If all are contained inside the radius S = 2 and T = 2.
E = 30% x ( 1 - 2/2) = 0% N = 1-N = 100%
A% = 100%
B% = C% = D% = Z% = 0%.
Thus Xd = 0.
Xs = 0.
Gs = 3xS = 3x2 = 6.
Xs+Gs = 0 + 6 = 6 for 362 fields fully covered by a scarecrow. That is 27 crops better than 33 our scarecrow-less benchmark. I suggest if you can fit all crops under 2 scarecrow you are better off having the scarecrow than not. By 27 harvests per season.

If you would prefer not to obtain that second scarecrow but instead just use the single you started covering 181 and leave the other half (181) uncovered: S = 1 and T = 2.
E = 30% x ( 1 - 1/2) = 15% N = 1-N = 85%
A% = 52.20%
B% = 36.85%
C% = 9.75%
D% = 1.15%
Z% = 0.05%.
Thus Xd = 0.6
Xs = 0.6x27 = 17
Gs = 3xS = 3x1 = 3.
Xs+Gs =17 + 3 = 20 for 362 fields half covered by a scarecrow. That is 13 crops better than 33 our scarecrow-less benchmark but 14 worse than two scarecrows. I suggest if you can fit all crops under 2 scarecrow you are better off having both the scarecrows, but even 1 scarecrow covering half is better than none.

3 full of Three (543 fields) is better to field 100% covered.
as is 4 of 4, 5 of 5, all the way up to 10 scarecrows or 1881 fields.(In my current method of building them)
Gs at 11/11 is 33, Xs at 11/11 is 0. = 33
Gs at 0/11 is 0, Xs at 0/11 is 33. same / same. But you already have 10 scarecrows maybe, from before. Or 6. Or any number.
at T = 11 scarecrows required, all combinations of Gs + Xs = 33. So you can launch to 11 from anywhere previous and beat the benchmark.

Once you reach the total (or configuration) of fields that requires 12 scarecrows in where Gs+Xs becomes 36 in all instances of S less than 14. And as such one might prefer to remove all scarcrows from the farm.

At T=13 . All instances of adding a scarecrow to your count increases Gs faster than it decreases Xs, so the losses just increase the more scarecrows you place.This holds true for all T greater than 13 as well.

But, this was assuming all scarecrows must be built on tillable tiles. Is this true? Could one build scarecrows on non tillable tiles? I've not looked into that yet. I know that would defeat the abilty to count all fields in terms of equal scarecrow units, but at that point any field covered by the non harvest producing scarecrow would serve to increase S/T which would then then reduce E and thus the Xd and Xs while not increasing Gs. Thus scarecrows have value again.

I'll stop here for a breather then come back for deluxe Scarecrow and farm sizes.
{thanks for getting this far]
 
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Sigrah

Farmer
I was looking at the Wiki for crows and realized that scarecrows aren't worth it at a certain point. According to the Wiki "For every 16 crops (rounded down), a crow may try to eat a crop. This is maxed at 4 crows. Each crow has a 30% chance of attempting to eat." So that means that if you have 64 or more crops then you should lose, on average 1.2 crops a night. This number does not change though if you have 64 or 3000+ crops. Its kind of an edge case, but if your the kind of player that fills their entire field with crops then I think its actually better to not use scarecrows.
I have to disagree. The mathematics might show an average of losing only 1.2 crops a night, but spread that over 28 days, you can expect to lose 33.6 crops a season. In my 1st year, The vast majority of my crops are Strawberries in the Spring (100+ at a minimum), Blueberries in the Summer (198), and Cranberries in the Fall (228) along with 15+Rare Seeds. I also plant Ancient Seeds whenever I get them up until Fall 2 since I always use Speed-Gro on them. And during Year 1, I only need 4 Regular Scarecrows max to protect all of my crops (382 by Summer and Fall) from crow attacks.

Now, if I didn't protect my crops using Scarecrows, I would put all my multi-harvest crops at risk (especially the Ancient Fruit since they take 26 days with Speed-Gro to produce their first harvest and they live 3 out of the 4 seasons), and really put the Rare Seeds at risk in the Fall since they cost 1,000 gold a piece and can't be harvested until Day 25 if you plant all them on the first day of Fall and you don't use Speed-Gro / Deluxe Speed Gro. If either the Ancient Fruit or Rare Seeds get eaten, that's a significant loss in Year 1, and means one less Ancient Fruit / Rare Seed for the Seed Makers, not to mention that losing 1,000g per Rare Seed bought in Spring and Summer of Year 1 can be pretty significant. On top of that, for Rare Seeds, it's even worse if you just want to sell them: Each one is a loss of 3,000g to 4,500g (depending on quality) per seed eaten by a crow if you're not feeding them to the seed makers, in addition to the 1,000g you spent buying them. That's a total loss of 4,000g to 5,500g for each Rare Seed eaten. Finally, losing any of the other multi-harvest crops to Crows can cause a hit to the pocket book as well, and means replanting a replacement (assuming you have 1) to start over for each one lost. That can really add up fast, especially when you factor in that you can build your own scarecrows rather cheaply and, like I said above, I only need 4 to cover everything in Year 1

In year 2, I run at a 936 crop field (that's *AFTER* installing 10 Regular Scarecrows and 40 Iridium Sprinklers), all with Deluxe Speed Grow. Of those, 570 are my favored Crop (Strawberries in Spring, Star Fruit in Summer, Pumpkins in Fall), 95 are Ancient Seeds, 89 Coffee Plants, 87 Forage Seasonal Seeds, and and the remaining 95 with Seasonal Crops I still need for Achievements and Cooking for a total of 936 crops. However, I only need to use 10 regular scarecrows to protect them, and it still remains important. Take Ancient Seeds, for instance. They first bloom on Day 22 in Spring (using Deluxe Speed-Gro), and they'll produce a total of 9 harvests. Since I run with 95 of them, that's a total of 855 Ancient Fruit over the course of Spring, Summer, and Fall of Year 2. But, each one I lose is one less I can use for making wine / jelly, and one less to feed to the seed makers for Year 3's planting. For wine, that's a loss of 1,650g (2,310g if you have Artisan Profession) for each one a crow eats. For Jelly, it's less severe, but is still a loss of 1,150g / 1,610g for each one a crow eats, though this doesn't factor in the total number of Ancient Fruits you lose depending on when the crows eat one since they can produce up to 9 harvests using Deluxe Speed-Gro on Day 1. And if you look at losses for each Starfruit eaten by a crow in Summer, it's even worse: 2,250g / 3,150g for Wine, 1,550g / 2,170g for Jelly for each Starfruit eaten by a crow). Again, these aren't insignificant losses in Year 2.

In Year 3, my crop count is down to 876 crops each season (I lose 60 to the 10 Junimo Huts I place by then. And yes, I know it's overkill, but I'm an Asperger, and have a love for symmetry and aesthetics as a couple of my quirks). By this time, I'm also running Ancient Fruit almost exclusively on my farm (it's my favorite crop), with only 81 Coffee Plants in Spring and Summer, and 81 Rare Seeds in Fall as my only other crops in my smallest plot. However, I will have replaced my 10 Regular Scarecrows with 4 Deluxe Scarecrows by Year 3, Day 1. Losing 4 crop spots is nothing considering I can expect an average of losing 33.6 crops per season. Hell, even just using 10 Regular Scarecrows is still more profitable than losing 33.6 crops per season.

Anyways, people are free to disagree with me and / or point out if I'm in error with my math somewhere if they choose, I'm just trying to explain my viewpoint on why Scarecrows are important to have on your farm.
 
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Boo1972

Farmer
I guess it depends on what you mean by worth it. For my large crop fields I don’t worry about it. I certainly don’t lose even a crop a night. The money loss is minimal. But if the aesthetics of lost crops bothered me, I’d use scarecrows. Now my 2nd farmer is growing a corn maze. You best believe there are scarecrows all over the place there. I’m not even planning on harvesting the corn!
 
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