Optimizing and predicting RNG

[riklaunim]

Each playthrough has a seed value that is then used to generate results for things like geodes, weather patterns, possible night events, and so on. This can be checked with https://mouseypounds.github.io/stardew-predictor/ - but the RNG in this game isn't just a dice roll. You want something specific from for example Artifact Trove - technically you have 3,6% to get one specific thing, but all geodes are on the same counter so if you are opening various geodes you may not get what you want that quickly...

It's possible to force some favorable RNG by using a different seed - either starting a new playthrough over and over while checking each with Stardew Predictor or getting known lucky seed value from other players. This can be used to get:

- early prismatic shard from an omni-geode
- "easy" treasure appraisal guide
- red cabbage from the traveling cart (also has a first-year completion guarantee toggle in the game settings)
- early quality sprinklers from traveling cart (up to 5 at once but it's super rare to get 5 during the first half of spring for example)
- early coconut/fruit salad/pink cake/sunflower to gift Haley on her birthday to then have enough hearts with her to dance with her at your first flower dance ;)
- early iridium bar to build a slime hutch before farming the mines for some chances on slime eggs for extra profit (low chances but still)
- focusing on more trains / more rainy days.
- getting late community center items early

Mystery Boxes can also give a prismatic shard but they are more complicated than geodes - first, you need enough "help wanted" quests to spawn (those that you can complete) to unlock them to then start gathering them. If you get fortunate and unlock them before strawberries for example and you get first 1-few you may check for speed grows or other handy things. Prismatic shard at like 40-50 mystery boxes may actually be quite far away depending on your "luck".

Getting Book of Mysteries helps with getting mystery boxes but to get it (from mystery boxes) you also have to check the counter at which the book will show up. If you are lucky it will be like the first 20-40 which is doable, but if it's way further you may unlock master boxes before you get enough normal boxes :D

From checking multiple "new games" prismatic shards rarely show up on counters lower than 100-200 and sometimes show up at much higher counter values... yet rarely you can get a seed that gives a prismatic shard within first 50 or less geodes. This in theory allows getting a prismatic shard in spring, then investing in the bus unlock to get a nice sword before even getting deep into the mines.

Night events like meteors or fairies have a chance to occur on the marked date - they aren't guaranteed. A witch event can happen if you have a big/deluxe coop or a slime hutch.

Prize ticket rewards are also in this system - will you get quality sprinklers or maybe more interesting jars or mushroom logs? ;)

For Mines the calendar gives info on mushroom floors (income!) and infested floors - handy when farming eradication goals.

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Gifts sent by villagers to you in the mail are a choice from a pool of items given NPC can give and will re-roll if you re-load the save.

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And if you wonder what forge items spawned on your current day - https://stardew.selbysaurus.me/calendar (also finds NPCs).

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And there are more advanced prediction apps, which on older versions of the game allowed players to get near-infinite rainy days (as it depended on farmer movements the day before) while now allowing optimal hoe usage (clay farming is gone by default in 1.6 though, although there is a checkbox to use the old RNG systems with clay farming).


Any other RNG optimization/option I forgot? :)

 

[FilthyGorilla]

Mystery Boxes can also give a prismatic shard but they are more complicated than geodes - first, you need enough "help wanted" quests to spawn (those that you can complete) to unlock them to then start gathering them. If you get fortunate and unlock them before strawberries for example and you get first 1-few you may check for speed grows or other handy things. Prismatic shard at like 40-50 mystery boxes may actually be quite far away depending on your "luck".

Getting Book of Mysteries helps with getting mystery boxes but to get it (from mystery boxes) you also have to check the counter at which the book will show up. If you are lucky it will be like the first 20-40 which is doable, but if it's way further you may unlock master boxes before you get enough normal boxes :D

Just want to add something on quickly, while all geodes advance the global "geode counter" so to speak, they do NOT advance the mystery box counter. On the contrary, mystery boxes advance both their own and the regular geode counter.

There are also a bunch of other things that aren't entirely determined by randoms (that make them outside of human prediction).
Geode tiles, ladder tiles, special monster drop tiles, special crate drop tiles are all still tied to seed and set for each day (though the geode tiles now shift daily unlike in 1.5 where they were permanent) which allows for forcing geodes, making sure you get the special loot drops you want, and more.
Rain on ginger island and storm days are also still impacted by step count like all rain was in 1.5, the list goes on

Slightly outside of direct rng, there are many things affected by seed like what was mentioned above that are forcable through dynamic seeding, a glitch allowing you to change your game seed from within the game, which leads to being able to force geode loot, things tied to tile (those specific tiles set to seed and day), make the valley rain every applicable day, etc.

 

[PerfectionWhaleFarm]

We may be focusing on different goals for RNG optimizations and I'm a console player still on 1.5, but:

From a collector's perspective, the following RNG optimizations greatly improve time to obtain every grade-quality of every item:

1. Wine and Pickles from the Traveling Cart
2. Shirt (118-121) from Sandy
3. Train drops for Leprechaun Shoes
4. Teaset from the Feast of Winter Star
5. Early Garbage Hat from trash cans

There are a few other things that I believe one cannot manipulate RNG for (e.g., Living Hat, which slimes breed with each other for slime color farming, Strange Capsule, etc.)

Would be potentially interesting to figure out a seed which optimizes for this.

 

[FilthyGorilla]

We may be focusing on different goals for RNG optimizations and I'm a console player still on 1.5, but:

From a collector's perspective, the following RNG optimizations greatly improve time to obtain every grade-quality of every item:

1. Wine and Pickles from the Traveling Cart
2. Shirt (118-121) from Sandy
3. Train drops for Leprechaun Shoes
4. Teaset from the Feast of Winter Star
5. Early Garbage Hat from trash cans

There are a few other things that I believe one cannot manipulate RNG for (e.g., Living Hat, which slimes breed with each other for slime color farming, Strange Capsule, etc.)

Would be potentially interesting to figure out a seed which optimizes for this.

The date the strange capsule lands in fact can be predicted, and is tied to seed. That doesn't always mean the even will succeed, but since 1.6 the chance for it not to is very low unless you have a very very cluttered farm

 

[PerfectionWhaleFarm]

The date the strange capsule lands in fact can be predicted, and is tied to seed. That doesn't always mean the even will succeed, but since 1.6 the chance for it not to is very low unless you have a very very cluttered farm

That's very interesting, although as you said - it is not quite that rare (even for 1.5 standards). Do you know if whether or not certain drops occur can be predictably predicted or manipulated when it's not tied to seed? (e.g., Living Hat, Tiger Hat, etc.) From a meta perspective, this would be quite interesting but not sure how feasible. In other games (e.g., Pokemon), these types of RNG are also thoroughly manipulated and abused as well, haha.

 

[FilthyGorilla]

Do you know if whether or not certain drops occur can be predictably predicted or manipulated when it's not tied to seed? (e.g., Living Hat, Tiger Hat, etc.) From a meta perspective, this would be quite interesting but not sure how feasible. In other games (e.g., Pokemon), these types of RNG are also thoroughly manipulated and abused as well, haha.

Many if not all things can be iirc, is it reasonable to do by a human? Absolutely not.

You could most easily advance rng calls by interacting with npcs in the socials tab which is how tas often does it, there are a plethora of ways that you can affect the game1.random but none are in any way usable by a human, even with basically limitless tools at their disposal, they just require inhuman actions