just a question

[stormy063]

what are the statistics of not getting a rain day from the 12th of summer to the 28th of fall?

 

[One More Day]

Summer 13 and Summer 26 are both guaranteed to be thunderstorm days; this is coded into the game. So, the chance of going Summer 12 through Fall 28 without any rain at all is literally zero.

If you want to think about the other days in that stretch:-

Generally throughout Fall, from the wiki, the chance of rain on any given day is a flat 18.3%, except the first day of any season, and the two festival days, it never rains. Therefore the chances of it staying dry the whole of Fall is

(1-0.183)²⁵

which is approximately 1 in 156

Summer is a bit more complicated, as the chance of rain increases slightly by 0.3% each day through the season, from 12.6% on Summer 2, to 20.1% on Summer 27. Using an average of 16% isn't perfect, but it's indicative, and we get

(1-0.16)¹⁵

which is around 1 in 13.67, though remember this is an on the fly approximation, not an exact answer

Multiplying the two together, the chance of not getting rain apart from on the two guaranteed storm days is approximated at 1 in 3200

So, pretty unlikely, but not freakishly unlikely

 

[Lew Zealand]

Summer 13 and Summer 26 are both guaranteed to be thunderstorm days; this is coded into the game. So, the chance of going Summer 12 through Fall 28 without any rain at all is literally zero.

If you want to think about the other days in that stretch:-

Generally throughout Fall, from the wiki, the chance of rain on any given day is a flat 18.3%, except the first day of any season, and the two festival days, it never rains. Therefore the chances of it staying dry the whole of Fall is

(1-0.183)²⁵

which is approximately 1 in 156

Summer is a bit more complicated, as the chance of rain increases slightly by 0.3% each day through the season, from 12.6% on Summer 2, to 20.1% on Summer 27. Using an average of 16% isn't perfect, but it's indicative, and we get

(1-0.16)¹⁵

which is around 1 in 13.67, though remember this is an on the fly approximation, not an exact answer

Multiplying the two together, the chance of not getting rain apart from on the two guaranteed storm days is approximated at 1 in 3200

So, pretty unlikely, but not freakishly unlikely

1. Penguin brain good.
2. This is still about 3x as likely to happen as getting the garbelflarbing Work Boots (1/8333 chance).

 

[FilthyGorilla]

Summer 13 and Summer 26 are both guaranteed to be thunderstorm days; this is coded into the game. So, the chance of going Summer 12 through Fall 28 without any rain at all is literally zero.

If you want to think about the other days in that stretch:-

Generally throughout Fall, from the wiki, the chance of rain on any given day is a flat 18.3%, except the first day of any season, and the two festival days, it never rains. Therefore the chances of it staying dry the whole of Fall is

(1-0.183)²⁵

which is approximately 1 in 156

Summer is a bit more complicated, as the chance of rain increases slightly by 0.3% each day through the season, from 12.6% on Summer 2, to 20.1% on Summer 27. Using an average of 16% isn't perfect, but it's indicative, and we get

(1-0.16)¹⁵

which is around 1 in 13.67, though remember this is an on the fly approximation, not an exact answer

Multiplying the two together, the chance of not getting rain apart from on the two guaranteed storm days is approximated at 1 in 3200

So, pretty unlikely, but not freakishly unlikely

technically you could get married on both of those days (13th and 26th of summer) to make them sunny but there is no way this comes about without you actively trying to avoid rain

 

[Benhimself]

technically you could get married on both of those days (13th and 26th of summer) to make them sunny but there is no way this comes about without you actively trying to avoid rain

Would you actually be able to get a second mermaid pendant without it raining at least once between the days?

 

[FilthyGorilla]

Would you actually be able to get a second mermaid pendant without it raining at least once between the days?

It's possible to buy multiple, you just have to buy them in the engagement period or have another player buy one (or it could just be two players marrying)