Does taking Special Orders alter the probability of various aspects of the game?

[Phate4569]

I've searched for an answer to this but either it is buried or unaddressed. I am on the Switch.

I have a suspicion that accepting a Special Order affects the in-game probability of things like Fishing, Crop yield (Seasonal Seeds), Forage spawning, and Monster Spawning.

Examples:
Aquatic Overpopulation - Carp - Winter Year 2 - (Fishing Level 10 (Pirate), Normal Bait, Dressed Spinner, Fiberglass Rod, Lucky Charm)
Generally I figure this would be a VERY simple quest. I chose the Mountain Lake as I figured it would have the best $ yield for anything I caught that wasn't Carp. It took me 2 days to complete this and by the end I had caught more Lingcod and Sturgeon than Carp.

Biome Balance - River - Spring Year 3 - (Fishing Level 10 (Pirate), Normal Bait, Dressed Spinner, Fiberglass Rod, Lucky Charm)
Again I figure this would be easy, I chose the river below Jodi's house. I began at ~ Noon, I completed the quest at almost 11pm. By the time I caught 20 fish I had also caught 24 Trash Items and Green Algae.

Gifts For George - Spring Year 3 (Accepted on Spring 8) - (Foraging Level 10 (Botanist), Lucky Charm) - ON GOING
I've passed 10 days of this Quest and have yet to find a single Leek in the wild, of those 10 days I've searched 6. My search route is Cindersnap (Entire), Secret Woods (Entire), Mountain (Minus Quarry), Backwoods (Entire), Town (Minus area by Clint's, Joja, and Museum), and the Bus Stop (Entire).
Additionally I planted 24 Spring Seeds, of those 24 only 5 came up as Leek.

Cave Patrol - Grubs - Summer Year 2 - (Lucky Charm, Combat Level 10 (Brute), Sewer Unlocked, Mutant Bug Cave Unlocked)
This was the first I noticed it so I didn't look too closely, The Mutant Bug Cave seemed to spawn much less than normal, and finding Grubs on Mine Floors was much harder than I suspected it would be.

 

[Phate4569]

I finished off the Gifts for George Special Order.
- Continuing to forage I found no Leeks in the route described above
- Remaining 48 summer seeds I planed came up, yielding only the remaining 7 Leeks (12/72 = 17% Leek chance form Summer seeds)

NOTE: The day after I turned in the order I was not on a foraging route, just running to Robin's (via Backwoods) then Krobus, then Marnie and found 6 Leeks.

I am VERY convinced that taking Special Orders alters the in-game probability.

Can anyone examine the code or help spade just to make sure it isn't my perception bias?

 

[imnvs]

I had the opposite experience when I went for the Gifts for George. I planted 24 seeds around an iridium sprinkler and got 7, so with the 5 I found running around foraging on Tuesday, that was all I needed. That's almost twice the expected rate out of wild seeds, so it may just be that I'm lucky and you're unlucky, mate.

 

[Phate4569]

Possibly, which is why I'm asking.

 

[Miretar]

I believe that this is what is known as Murphy’s Law.

 

[Squigglyruth]

Can anyone examine the code or help spade just to make sure it isn't my perception bias?

I don't know how to check the code, but I can test it out with my special orders this game. I just entered Fall Y1. If I record what happens for each special order, that would help mitigate against perception bias.

Special order 1: Community Cleanup.

I took the quest on the Tuesday. I then fished all day in the river from about 10:30 a.m. and only got one piece of trash.

The next day I tried the lava lake in the mines and received 9 Joja Colas and 14 trash out of 23 items fished. (That seems a higher than normal rate of cola.)

On Saturday I tried the ocean but received no trash in a couple of hours and was running out of bait, so I returned to the lava lake and received 1 trash and 1 lava eel, then moved to level 60 where I got 9 algae, 2 ghostfish, 1 trash and an ice-pip. I ended on level 20 where I got 1 algae, ghostfish and 1 stonefish.

In the course of the week 1 also got 2 trash from my 3 crabpots, and 1 from the one bin I checked.

To me, that seems like a lower level of trash than normal, except for the lucky moment with the bin. But it isn't extreme enough to be sure.

My conclusion? Whether or not it's down to the special order, I got the lava eel with much less hassle than normal, so I will be trying that same strategy in future games.

 

[imnvs]

To me, that seems like a lower level of trash than normal, except for the lucky moment with the bin. But it isn't extreme enough to be sure.

Trash is a bad example when testing the probabilities. There are more variables in play. See, you get less trash when your fishing skill level is high and when you cast far. If you want trash, barely touch the button when going to cast so that it drops right in front of you into the water. You'll get trash a lot, believe me.

 

[Squigglyruth]

Trash is a bad example when testing the probabilities. There are more variable in play. See, you get less trash when your fishing skill level is high and when you cast far. If you want trash, barely touch the button when going to cast so that it drops right in front of you into the water. You'll get trash a lot, believe me.

Yes, trash isn't a great example, but it is the special order that I took, and in the interests of being fair I thought I should record every one. I wasn't trying to get trash the first day, just assuming I would pick some up in the normal run of fishing for profit. I have fishing level 10, and normally cast max distance, but I do normally get more trash than that. Could easily be coincidence though. The second day I thought it was worth trying the lava lake in case trash proportions had been reduced - not very scientific, but the main aim of my run is to get perfection as early as possible so it made sense for that reason. I would be interested to know the expected proportion of Joja Cola in the lava lake.

Second special order: Biome balance (ocean fish). Very quick and easy to fish up 20 ocean fish in a few hours one evening, normal luck day. I also got a couple of seaweed and a couple of trash items - about the normal balance.

 

[Ereo]

I don't know how to check the code, but I can test it out with my special orders this game. I just entered Fall Y1. If I record what happens for each special order, that would help mitigate against perception bias.

Special order 1: Community Cleanup.

I took the quest on the Tuesday. I then fished all day in the river from about 10:30 a.m. and only got one piece of trash.

The next day I tried the lava lake in the mines and received 9 Joja Colas and 14 trash out of 23 items fished. (That seems a higher than normal rate of cola.)

On Saturday I tried the ocean but received no trash in a couple of hours and was running out of bait, so I returned to the lava lake and received 1 trash and 1 lava eel, then moved to level 60 where I got 9 algae, 2 ghostfish, 1 trash and an ice-pip. I ended on level 20 where I got 1 algae, ghostfish and 1 stonefish.

In the course of the week 1 also got 2 trash from my 3 crabpots, and 1 from the one bin I checked.

To me, that seems like a lower level of trash than normal, except for the lucky moment with the bin. But it isn't extreme enough to be sure.

According to the wiki, if you have fishing level 10 and the location has at least 5 different fish, the probability to catch trash is virtually zero. I think that explains both river and ocean.

I went into the mines to replicate the lava pond. I cast 33 times (three were eel).

The results are:
8 trash bags
5 Joja Cola
5 driftwood
5 glasses
4 CDs
3 newspapers.

That looks to me like they all have equal chances, and rng gave a couple more bags of trash, which would probably even out if you catch hundreds instead of just 30.

I'm level 7 and this is a mobile file, so still version 1.4 without special orders.

So you did catch a bit more Joja Cola than usual, but I'm not sure if the size of the sample is big enough to come to a conclusion.

 

[Phate4569]

Yeah, when I did the trash one I used the farm pond which is all trash, so I don't have a good sample for that quest.

It could be Murphy's Law or perception bias, or it could be my game (which is currently bugged w/ the Void Pendant issue I reported in the other subforum). I figure it would be worthwhile to check. If it does then it could lead to some interesting (if infrequent) exploits, for example the Carp one could be used to increase fishing profit or force rarer fish for faster CC Completion.

Though I will say that this statement:

According to the wiki, if you have fishing level 10 and the location has at least 5 different fish, the probability to catch trash is virtually zero. I think that explains both river and ocean.

Lends a lot of credence to my theory based on the Biome Balance quest I reported in the original post.

 

[Salty1]

Yeah, when I did the trash one I used the farm pond which is all trash, so I don't have a good sample for that quest.

When I got this one, I thought I had the most brilliant plan ever - I went straight to the lava lake on level 100 of the mines. Sure fire method, right?

Well, I got a lava eel on my first cast. And second. And the third and fourth too! It wasn't until the fifth cast that I got a joja cola, and I didn't get "proper trash" until the seventh.

I swear the code knows how to troll you when it wants to.

 

[Elenna101]

I'd be pretty surprised if CA coded it so that things you need are less likely than usual, doesn't really seem like his style. Haven't looked at the code to check that or anything, though.

I just started the process of getting all the 1.5 stuff on my main file, so I might edit my special order results into this post later. So far all I've got is the prismatic jelly and the giant omelet quest, and obviously neither of those really has a "normal probability" to compare to.

EDIT:

Did the "kill 50 grubs" quest. I was doing it by checking floor 25, then 15, then any ladders I got from killing enemies, then back to 0 and repeat, all with +2 speed. It took me about 6 in-game hours and maybe 11-13 times resetting back to floor 0. If anything that feels a little faster than normal, but I don't really have a good idea of what "normal" is.

 

[Salty1]

Ooh, speaking of the prismatic jelly, I'll mention one other odd quirk I've noticed across multiple farms now.

For the ectoplasm that can drop from ghosts, I've found that the burglar ring is a -massive- benefit towards getting it. I got the ectoplasm twice on the first ghost in two instances with, and by the third on the "worst" run with the burglar ring.

But without it, it takes like a minimum of twenty ghosts to get it to drop on three other separate runs. Not sure if that's just bad luck or if there's something goofy going on with a multiplier somewhere.

 

[Worblehat]

I think that was just bad luck. I'm nowhere near getting a burglar ring (it sounds ... precioussss! ) but the ectoplasm special order was easy-peasy, got it on the first or second ghost, no problem.

For Community Cleanup, just fishing at the farm seemed like the obvious solution to me.

 

[LRangerR]

For Community Cleanup, just fishing at the farm seemed like the obvious solution to me.

It's the obvious solution, but the non-obvious solution is floor 100

 

[imnvs]

Those of us on Beach and Riverlands farms can't just fish on the farm for trash like everyone else. Those farm maps don't have a chance for trash before it does the normal checks.

 

[Ereo]

The fountain outside the spa works very well for fishing out trash if you're not on the standard farm map.

 

[One More Day]

Gifts For George - Spring Year 3 (Accepted on Spring 8) - (Foraging Level 10 (Botanist), Lucky Charm) - ON GOING
I've passed 10 days of this Quest and have yet to find a single Leek in the wild, of those 10 days I've searched 6. My search route is Cindersnap (Entire), Secret Woods (Entire), Mountain (Minus Quarry), Backwoods (Entire), Town (Minus area by Clint's, Joja, and Museum), and the Bus Stop (Entire).

Quick FYI, leeks will never spawn in town, in the forest or in the secret woods. They only appear in the backwoods and mountain areas and the bus stop

 

[imnvs]

Quick FYI, leeks will never spawn in town, in the forest or in the secret woods. They only appear in the backwoods and mountain areas and the bus stop

Very close, but not exactly correct.

58% of forage in the backwoods and mountains will be leeks.
20% of forage at the bus stop and railroad (this is the one you missed) will be leeks.

Additionally, for those on the forest farm map, 25% of forage found on the farm will be leeks.