Also level 20 has barely any trash
I consider algae trash because it doesn't net you a direct income, unlike chubs, which can be sold for a fair amount if necessary. Fishing at the lake or in the river cuts the probability for getting "trash" (algae and jellies included) because targeted bait works wonders there.
Thats something that likely won't happen in early days.
Luck-wise, you rely on getting forages for the bait maker (in best case scenario - on D5.
@Werbenja suggests it should be D6, which I'm okay with, but anything later than that will could make you feel like lagging behind). and not getting infested floors. After failing to get all forages needed on D6, I tested how often and when I could get the rest. From my experience, it's the sea urchin that's the bottleneck. The wiki says: "The average spawn rate for Sea Urchin in the tide pool section of the beach is 0.23/day. " I went to bed instantly after checking the beach - this means taking little steps. I'm saying that just in case, perhaps it affects the spawn rate anyhow? Anyways, take a look at my results:
Test 1: on D6, I got 1 sea urchin and 1 coral. D7 provided me with another coral and on D8 I got another 2.
Test 2: on D5, I got 3 corals and this irritated me so I quit the run. After checking it now I see I got a sea urchin and two corals on D6.
Test 3: D6: 6 corals. D7: 2 corals. D8: +2 corals. 4 in total. D9: no changes. D10: +1 coral and a clam. D11: +1 coral. D12: no changes. D13: it's Egg Festival and here I stopped counting for an urchin.
Test 4: D5: 7 corals. D6: +1 coral. D7: clam and a mussel. D8: +2 corals. D9: +2 corals. D10: no changes. D11: +2 corals. D12: no changes.
From here on, I started making new characters that I "pushed" to D5 by instantly going to bed. Aside from the results above you can add 3 cases in which I got all forageables needed on D5. They are all now D7-9.
Test 5: D5: got everything needed.
Test 6: D5: 6 corals. D6: no changes. D7: 2 corals, 1 mussel. From now on I'll just mention on which day I got urchin, if it was doable before D13. D9
: got an urchin
Test 7: D5: no urchin. D6: urchin got
Test 8: D5: urchin got, 1 coral missing. D6: coral appeared.
Test 9: D5: got everything
Test 10: D5: no urchin. D8: urchin got.
Test 11: D5: got everything
Test 12: D5: got everything
Test 13: D5: got everything
Test 14: D5: got everything
Test 15: D5: got everything
Test 16: D5: got everything
Test 17: D5: no urchin. D10: urchin got
Test 18: D5: got everything
Test 19: D5: got everything
Test 20: D5: got everything
So no, I don't think that bait maker in early spring is unlikely to happen. I have all the saves preserved, and can provide them if needed.